Considering Global Conflicts — Sudan
Given the significant amount of attention on the conflict in Gaza, I thought it would be a good idea to highlight some of the other conflicts around the world. In places like Sudan, Myanmar, Ukraine, and Armenia there are conflicts that are just as, or even more, violent than the one currently occurring in Gaza. Many of the actions in these places could just as easily be described as “genocide”, and yet get a fraction of the coverage.
I have a few ideas about why this is, but that is fundamentally subjective and hard to prove. The most obvious is that Israel’s capital Jerusalem has huge significance for three religions, Christianity, Judaism, and Islam, which together make up half the world’s population. Another is that it is a high-profile conflict in an area, the Middle East, that is historically important for the modern economy. But all of this is residue from the past.
Moving right along. . .
This first explainer will cover Sudan, and the current conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia. The crisis is severe and escalating and has significant implications for the stability of Sudan and the Sahel region. Roughly 15,000 have been killed, and 8.2 million have been displaced. This conflict is rooted in complex power struggles, historical tensions, and competing interests within Sudan’s political and military leadership. And it is returning violence to a region that can afford it the least: Darfur.
Background
Sudan has a history of military coups, civil wars, and political instability. The ousting of long-time president Omar al-Bashir in 2019 marked a significant turning point, leading to the establishment of a transitional government composed of both civilian and military leaders. This arrangement was designed to facilitate democratic elections and a civilian-led government. However, the transition has been fraught with challenges, including economic hardships, political infighting, and continuing violence across the country.
The SAF is Sudan’s official military, responsible for national defense and internal security. It has a long history of involvement in Sudanese politics, often playing a decisive role in power transitions. General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the SAF, has been a key figure in the transitional government since Bashir’s ouster.
The RSF was formed in 2013, evolving from the Janjaweed militias used by the Bashir regime during the Darfur conflict. Officially integrated into Sudan’s security apparatus, the RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemeti, gained significant power and autonomy. The RSF has been accused of numerous human rights abuses, both in Darfur and elsewhere.
However, it became a crucial player in the stability of the country, a vital function so soon after the 2011 separation of South Sudan. Under Hemeti’s leadership, the RSF has amassed significant economic and political power, including control over lucrative gold mining operations. The RSF’s integration into the formal security structure of Sudan has been contentious, contributing to tensions with the SAF.
Recent Developments
The power struggle between the SAF and the RSF intensified following the 2019 revolution. Initially, both forces appeared to cooperate within the transitional government. However, underlying tensions remained, particularly concerning the future role and integration of the RSF into the military. The civilian-led government and international observers have called for the RSF’s disarmament and integration, which Hemeti has resisted.
In October 2021, General Burhan led a military coup, dissolving the civilian-led government and arresting Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and other civilian leaders. This move was widely condemned both domestically and internationally, leading to mass protests and a further destabilization of the political situation. The coup highlighted the fragile balance of power and the deep mistrust between military factions and civilian authorities.
Since the 2021 coup, tensions between the SAF and the RSF have continued to escalate. Sporadic clashes have occurred, particularly in Khartoum and other strategic locations. Both sides have mobilized forces, leading to fears of a full-scale civil war. The conflict has been marked by brutal violence, including attacks on civilians, destruction of property, and widespread human rights abuses. The conflict has had devastating humanitarian consequences. Access to basic services, including healthcare, food, and clean water, has been severely disrupted.
The international community has expressed deep concern over the escalating conflict. The United Nations, the African Union, and various countries have called for an immediate cessation of hostilities and a return to dialogue. Sanctions and diplomatic pressures have been employed to encourage both sides to seek a peaceful resolution. However, the effectiveness of these measures has been limited, given the entrenched positions of the SAF and the RSF.
Potential Outcomes
If the current trajectory continues, Sudan could face a prolonged and devastating civil war. The conflict could further destabilize the region, leading to increased refugee flows and regional insecurity. Prolonged violence would also exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation, making recovery and reconstruction more challenging.
A negotiated settlement, although difficult, remains a potential path to peace. This would require significant compromises from both the SAF and the RSF, including agreement on the integration of forces, power-sharing arrangements, and guarantees of safety and autonomy for various factions. International mediators could play a crucial role in facilitating such negotiations.
In the event of continued escalation, there may be calls for more robust international intervention, potentially including peacekeeping forces. However, the success of such interventions would depend on the willingness of Sudanese actors to cooperate and the international community’s ability to provide sustained support.
Conclusion
The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces represents a critical juncture in Sudan’s troubled history. Rooted in historical grievances, power struggles, and competing interests, the violence has severe implications for the country’s future. Achieving lasting peace will require addressing the root causes of the conflict, ensuring inclusive political processes, and protecting human rights. The international community must remain engaged, providing both diplomatic and humanitarian support to help Sudan navigate this challenging period.