Iran's Proxy War with Israel

The State of the Middle East

Protests in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen. Abdallah Adel/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis in the Middle East is escalating rapidly, signaling a potentially broader regional war. In recent weeks, Israel has struck Houthi targets in Yemen following missile attacks on Israeli territory, while Hezbollah, operating from Lebanon, has been under pressure as Israel continues its offensive. Amid this rising tension, a significant development occurred with the death of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s long-time leader, creating a leadership vacuum that could have serious implications for both Hezbollah and the wider region.

Israeli Strikes the Houthis

On Sunday, Israel launched airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, including critical infrastructure such as power stations and the seaport of Hodeidah on the coast of the Red Sea. These strikes followed missile attacks by the Houthis, an Iranian-backed Shia militia, targeting Israel. The Houthis’ missile launches were part of a broader alignment of Iranian-backed groups across the region, including Hezbollah and various militias in Iraq and Syria, against Israel.

Israel’s Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, made it clear that Israel is willing to strike targets far beyond its immediate borders to defend itself against these threats, signaling Israel's readiness to engage in a larger regional conflict if necessary. “Our message is clear: no place is too far,” Gallant stated, underscoring Israel’s strategic resolve to strike at Iranian proxies wherever they may be operating.

However, while Israel ramps up its military actions, international concerns about a broader war are growing. US President Joe Biden reiterated the importance of avoiding an all-out regional war, emphasizing the need for de-escalation. Biden pledged to speak with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push for diplomatic avenues, though it remains unclear how much influence the U.S. can exert over Israel’s military strategy given its willingness to act in defiance of its allies.

Map of the Middle East showing areas primarily inhabited by Shia (blue) and Sunni (red) Muslims. Houthi territory is the blue on the southwest corner of the Arabian peninsula

Israel’s Strategy Against Iran’s Proxies

Prime Minister Netanyahu, in a speech at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on Friday, framed the conflict not merely as a localized war against Hamas or Hezbollah, but as part of a larger battle against Iranian influence throughout the Middle East. Netanyahu emphasized that Israel’s military actions are aimed at weakening Iran’s regional proxies, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, in a larger struggle he described as one between “good and evil.”

In his speech, Netanyahu reaffirmed Israel’s commitment to “continue degrading Hezbollah” until the organization is no longer able to threaten Israel’s northern border. His language was particularly forceful, calling for “total victory” in Israel’s ongoing battle against Hamas in Gaza, but the rhetoric also suggested an unrelenting approach to Hezbollah, which operates in Lebanon and has long been viewed by Israel as a major threat.

Netanyahu’s vision for Israel’s military actions is shaped by the broader geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, where Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis are on the frontlines of Tehran’s efforts to project power throughout the region. By targeting these groups, Israel is signaling its intention to weaken Iran’s ability to influence regional affairs, especially through its proxy militias.

The Death of Hezbollah’s Leader

One of the most significant recent developments in the region came shortly after Netanyahu’s address at the United Nations, when an Israeli strike reportedly killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah. Nasrallah had been at the helm of Hezbollah since the 1990s and was a key figure in shaping the group’s political and military strategy. His death marks a major turning point for Hezbollah, which has been under increasing pressure due to Israeli military actions and internal challenges in Lebanon.

Nasrallah’s death leaves a power vacuum within Hezbollah that will not be easy to fill. Hezbollah’s leadership has been significantly weakened in recent months due to Israeli strikes and other factors, making the task of choosing Nasrallah’s successor all the more complex. Two leading candidates to replace Nasrallah are Hashem Safieddine, head of Hezbollah’s executive council and a cousin of Nasrallah, and Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general since 1991. Both are long-time Hezbollah insiders with deep ties to the group’s leadership, but they will face the challenge of guiding Hezbollah through a period of unprecedented pressure.

The decision over Nasrallah’s successor will be made by Hezbollah’s Shura Council, a group of senior leaders responsible for the organization’s key decisions. Whoever assumes the leadership role will face the immediate challenge of managing Hezbollah’s military and political operations amidst ongoing Israeli strikes and rising instability in Lebanon. Furthermore, the new leader will have to navigate Hezbollah’s complex relationship with Iran, which provides critical financial and military support to the organization.

The Power Vacuum of Hezbollah

Nasrallah’s death and the resulting leadership vacuum in Hezbollah could have far-reaching consequences for the region. Hezbollah has been one of the most powerful non-state actors in the Middle East, with significant influence in Lebanon’s politics and a formidable military presence. Its close ties to Iran have made it a key player in Tehran’s broader regional strategy, serving as a counterweight to Israeli and Western interests in the region, as well as the interests of the Sunni Arab states such as Saudi Arabia.

The death of Nasrallah, coupled with Israel’s ongoing military operations against Hezbollah, could weaken the organization’s grip on power in Lebanon, potentially leading to increased instability in the country. Lebanon is already grappling with a severe economic crisis, political paralysis, and a refugee crisis stemming from the Syrian civil war. A weakened Hezbollah could exacerbate these challenges in the short term.

Additionally, the power vacuum within Hezbollah could lead to increased infighting among rival factions within the organization, as different leaders vie for control. This internal strife could further destabilize Hezbollah, weakening its ability to operate effectively both within Lebanon and in its military campaigns against Israel.

The broader regional implications of a weakened Hezbollah are also significant. Iran, which relies on Hezbollah as a key proxy force in its efforts to project power in the Middle East, could face new challenges in maintaining its influence in Lebanon and beyond. Other Iranian-backed groups, such as the Houthis in Yemen and various militias in Iraq and Syria, may be encouraged to step up their activities in the face of Hezbollah’s weakening leadership, potentially leading to a broader escalation of the conflict.

Conclusion

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iranian-backed groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis is transforming the regional security picture in the Middle East. Israel’s strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, coupled with its ongoing military campaign against Hezbollah, signal a broader effort to weaken Iran’s proxies throughout the region. The death of Hezbollah’s long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah adds a new layer of complexity to the situation, as the organization grapples with a leadership vacuum amidst increasing pressure from Israel.

The potential for a broader regional war remains high, despite calls for de-escalation from international leaders like US President Joe Biden. The power dynamics in the region are shifting rapidly, and the outcome of these developments will have far-reaching consequences for the Middle East’s stability and security.

Sources

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