The Global Blur of Alliances and War
Geopolitics and Modern Conflict
World events over the past month have moved at a whirlwind pace. This includes the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Russia’s trigger-happy air defense systems wreaking havoc, and the U.S. presidential transition. So, before the year runs out, I thought it would be helpful to contextualize these events and look at the big picture globally.
In today’s geopolitical context, conflicts are expanding across regions and globe-spanning alliances are forming that involve significant political actors, including the United States, the EU, Russia, and China. This alignment has brought the world closer to a system of alliances and rivalries resembling those that historically evolved into the World Wars.
While there are concerns over what a new U.S. administration might bring, there is also the possibility of continuity, even under an “America First” regime. A greater emphasis on bilateralism and a regional focus on East Asia could fray existing alliances. However, competition with China could lead the Trump administration to seek to strengthen existing alliances to maintain U.S. dominance.
The formal alliance network of the West, NATO, has been reinvigorated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, in the East, the informal network built through U.S. bilateral cooperation has grown in response to China’s increasingly provocative actions. Together, these alliances highlight a shifting global order where geopolitical gravity is pulling Europe and Asia closer together into shared defense frameworks.
This context is the backdrop against recent dramatic events in Syria and elsewhere. The informal axis of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea is acting against the interests of an American-backed global alliance system in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and East Asia. The destruction of Iran’s proxies in the Middle East, with a blind eye turned toward the humanitarian consequences, can be explained by this.
Russia’s Expanding Aggression
Russia’s actions in Europe over the last several years have raised the stakes. Moscow has expanded its conflict through overt and covert means to disrupt European stability and secure its regional dominance. In the Baltic Sea, for instance, Finnish authorities recently seized the Russian-linked tanker Eagle S, which was involved in sabotage operations against the Estlink 2 power line connecting Finland and Estonia.
Last month, Denmark detained a Chinese-flagged vessel with a Russian crew for destroying an undersea data cable in the Baltic. These acts reflect Russia’s use of hybrid warfare to destabilize energy infrastructure critical to European independence. Similarly, gray zone tactics in the Suwalki Gap aim to isolate the Baltic republics, with migrants surging across the Belarus-Poland border to destabilize the area and create a pretext for a Russian military presence.
Beyond Europe, Russia continues to undermine American and Western efforts through election interference and covert support for conflicts in regions like the Caucasus, where it plays both sides to maintain instability between Azerbaijan and Armenia and exerts influence in Georgia. Moscow’s enhanced economic ties with Central Asia allow it to bypass sanctions while entrenching its regional influence.
These maneuvers are not limited to physical warfare but extend to political and economic domains. Russia’s informal alliances with other revisionist states, including Iran, China, and North Korea, represent a coordinated axis that spans multiple theaters. Iranian coordination with Russia in Syria and North Korean troops’ deployment to Ukraine exemplifies this trans-regional cooperation.
The West Strengthens Alliances
Western nations have responded decisively to Russia’s aggression. NATO’s incorporation of Finland and Sweden has expanded its reach and reinforced its northern flank. Europe’s defense spending has surged, as have deliveries of military equipment to Ukraine, which are crucial for resisting Russian advances. Additionally, aspirations for EU membership in Georgia and Moldova demonstrate the West’s commitment to integrating vulnerable, former Soviet states into its sphere of influence.
In the Middle East, coordination between Turkey and the United States has limited Russian influence by enabling the lightning offensive that toppled Assad. Ukraine’s provision of grain to Syria also highlights efforts to weaken Russia’s role as a key supplier. These actions, along with the destruction of Iran’s proxies Hezbollah and Hamas by Israel have degraded Iranian and Russian influence in the Middle East theater of the emerging global cold war.
Cross-Regional Alliances
The current era marks a significant transformation in global alliance structures. Traditionally, Europe relied on NATO’s multilateral framework, while Asia operated under a bilateral “hub-and-spokes” model centered on U.S. partnerships with allies like Japan and South Korea. Today, these distinctions are blurring as cross-regional security cooperation increases.
NATO’s partnerships with Indo-Pacific nations such as Australia, Japan, and South Korea exemplify this shift. Bilateral initiatives like AUKUS (the Australia-UK-U.S. submarine deal) and trilateral agreements such as the Camp David summit between the U.S., Japan, and South Korea further reinforce this.
This interconnectedness is driven by shared concerns over China’s rise and Russia’s aggression. Beijing’s assertive actions in the South China Sea and its growing influence over critical technologies have prompted Indo-Pacific nations to seek closer ties with Europe and the U.S. and vice-versa. China’s control of supply chains and the leverage that comes with them are powerful bargaining chips.
The “minilateral” alliances emerging in this context reflect a more flexible approach to alliance-building, allowing countries to address specific security needs while maintaining broader regional stability. In the context of East Asia, this avoids provoking China by putting aside the question of Taiwanese independence while addressing the legitimate security concerns of our allies that are threatened by China’s increased aggression.
North Korea and Russia
This cross-regional cooperation is apparent with the revisionist states. North Korea’s support for Russia has expanded to sending troops to Russia to engage in combat operations against Ukraine. There are reports of heavy casualties resulting from ineffective “human wave” tactics that have made casualties of 10% of North Korean forces.
This partnership is not merely symbolic; it has quite literally become a blood pact, with North Korea’s contributions being rewarded with oil and advanced military technology from Russia, which could bolster Pyongyang’s missile programs. Recent tests showing significant improvements in North Korean missile capabilities point to the strategic benefits of this cooperation.
For North Korea, these developments have critical implications for Indo-Pacific security. Enhanced missile capabilities threaten U.S. allies like Japan and South Korea, while deepened ties with Russia complicate efforts to isolate Pyongyang diplomatically and economically. Meanwhile, the use of North Korean troops in Ukraine reflects the broader global alignment of authoritarian regimes against liberal democracies.
U.S. Policy and the Potential for Continuity
The upcoming U.S. administration will play a pivotal role in shaping the future of these alliances. While an “America First” approach under Donald Trump could emphasize bilateral deals and regional trade-offs, competition with China might still drive efforts to strengthen cross-regional ties. Structural forces, including the rise of China and the persistence of Russian aggression, suggest that alliance systems in Europe and Asia will remain robust.
Despite concerns about a potential inward turn by key allies like Germany and Japan, the strategic necessity of countering common threats is likely to sustain cross-regional cooperation. The strengthened NATO alliance and the deepening partnerships in the Indo-Pacific reflect a geopolitical reality unlikely to change dramatically regardless of U.S. leadership.
There have been rumors of decreasing American engagement with Europe to allow for diverting more resources to deter China. Trump himself has signaled disengagement with the politics of the Middle East. However, the linkages between Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia are substantive and not a matter of theoretical debate for policymakers. American policy will have no choice but to reflect this reality.
The current geopolitical environment is marked by an unprecedented blending of alliance networks across regions. NATO’s revitalization, cross-regional partnerships, and the alignment of revisionist powers like Russia, China, and North Korea show the global nature of modern conflicts. As these alliances evolve, they bring the world closer to a system that presaged the world wars, where regional rivalries intertwined with great power competition to transform a series of slow-burn proxy conflicts into a global conflagration.
The challenge for the West lies in maintaining resilience and adaptability to counter threats that span multiple theaters and doing so in a way that avoids open conflict. Whether through proactive responses to hybrid warfare or new alliance structures in the Indo-Pacific, the success of these efforts will shape the future of global security. In this interconnected world, the stakes are higher than ever, and the strength of alliances will determine whether the current tensions escalate into a broader global conflict or pave the way for a more stable international order.
“Hence to fight and concur in all your battles is not supreme excellence, supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy resistance without fighting.” — Sun Tzu from The Art of War
Sources:
Current History: https://medium.com/current-history/the-road-to-war-b20e78d3407d/
Chatham House: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/12/north-korea-and-russias-dangerous-partnership/how-north-korea-benefits/
Substack: https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-113-this-war-is-truly/
Politico: https://www.politico.eu/article/world-war-ukraine-russia-europe-cold-war-donald-trump-support-west-russia-americans-high-tech/
War on the Rocks: https://warontherocks.com/2024/12/alliance-networking-in-europe-and-the-indo-pacific/