Xi Jinping Cools on Putin and His Ukraine War
China sees Russia as a Potential Liability
Over the last few days, a major conference by the Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) took place in the ancient Silk Road city of Samarkand. The SCO consists of most of the major countries in Asia, including India, Russia, Turkey, and China.
Due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and the tension it has created between Russia and its SCO partners, many expected this conference to have major implications for global politics. It did not dissipoint.
The long-anticipated meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday provided interesting insight into the relationship between the two leaders. In his opening statement, Putin told Xi that he understands his “questions and concerns” about Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the first time the Russian leader has acknowledged such questioning by a foreign leader.
Perhaps this is a reflection of the fact that Ukrainian forces had just reaptured more than 3,000 square kilometers of Russian-occupied territory over the previous week. This might be speculation, but its possible Putin feels the need to ease the Russian people in to accepting a military withdrawal from Ukraine, both to salvage Russia’s international standing and Putin’s claim to control of the Kremlin.
Domestic considerations aside, this marks a sea change in the previous maximalist position of the Russian leader on the Ukraine issue, perhaps signaling that negotiations and an end to the war on favorable terms to Ukraine is on the table.
President Narendra Modi of India was more blunt in his assesment, going so far as to publicly rebuke Putin over the Ukraine invasion at their joint meeting at the conference. “I know that today’s era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this,” Modi said, adding that democracy, diplomacy and dialogue kept the world together.
This is diplomatic speak for telling Putin that his war in Ukraine was a very bad idea and should stop as soon as possible because its embarrassing to himself and everyone he’s allied with.
Xi’s response to Putin indicates unease in Beijing with how Russia’s war in Ukraine is playing out. At the opening of Thursday’s summit, Xi called on Putin to “assume the role of great powers and play a guiding role to inject stability and positive energy into a world rocked by social turmoil.” Modi’s response can be interpreted as a more truthful expression of Beijing’s assessment, given that India’s relationship with Russia gives it more latitude for public criticism.
The war appears to be advancing to an endgame favorable to Ukraine, which likely explains the less restrained language by Russia’s partners. Leonid Pasechnik, the head of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic in eastern Ukraine, admitted that Ukrainian forces were advancing on the separatist regions recognized by the Kremlin. The Russian government also admitted a loss for the first time in the Kharkiv Oblast of Ukraine.
But even if Xi is unhappy with Russia’s handling of the nearly seven-month war, China has essentially turned Russia into it’s own personal energy supplier. Beijing is buying cheaper energy from Russia as European purchases have cratered since the invasion, with Chinese purchases of gas coal, electicity, and crude oil increasing dramatically over the summer. That trend will continue if Russia keeps blocking energy exports to European Union countries through the winter.
Sensing the increasing precariousness of his partnership with the Chinese, Putin made a show of being fully in Xi’s corner. Putin informed the Chinese leader that he opposes U.S. “provocations” in the Taiwan Strait and backs the “One China” policy, after Beijing launched wide-ranging military exercises last month in response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
Both China and Russia have long sought to expand their club of Western antagonists. Russia has already accepted drones from Iran and North Korea, and, on Thursday, Tehran’s top diplomat announced that his country had signed a memorandum of obligation to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Iran has sought to draw on the help of Russia and China to avert pressure from Western sanctions since then-U.S. President Donald Trump exited the Iran nuclear deal in 2018.
Beacause of these shared goals, China is leary of giving Russia a blank check to pursue its most maximalist foreign policy, as this could undermine its efforts to create a competitive block opposing the US-led world order. Given the evidence of the past seven months, Xi would be correct to encourage Putin to end his disastrous war in Ukraine. Going forward, the Chinese will likely attempt to relegate the Russians to being at most a junior partner and, at least, an economic vassal state that supplies raw materials and energy.
At the SCO summit on Thursday, Putin indicated that Russia and China still want an alternative to the U.S.-led rules-based international order that has stood since World War II. “We jointly stand for the formation of a just, democratic, and multipolar world order based on international law and the central role of the United Nations and not on some rules someone has come up with and is trying to impose on others,” Putin stated at the SCO conference.
Unfortunately for Putin, such bold ambitions are beyond the capacity of the hollowed shell of the Soviet Empire.