In this episode of Current History, I sit down with Dr. Rolandas Simkevicius, a historian, security expert, and former classmate, for a wide-ranging discussion on Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and the future of the international order.
Rolandas is a historian and international relations and security expert with over two decades of experience across government, academia, and the private sector in Europe and the United States. He holds a PhD in International Relations from King’s College London, degrees from Vilnius University and Boston College, and is completing a Master’s in Government at Harvard University. He has served as an advisor at Lithuania’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations, consulted for UK government agencies, and worked as a security consultant for multinational firms, including Accenture. His work spans European security, Russia, transatlantic relations, and Japan.
As a native of Lithuania born in the former Soviet Union, he brings a first-person, personal perspective of living in Eastern Europe under the shadow of Russia. In addressing the conflict in Ukraine, he offers a unique perspective as someone who was directly impacted by the fall of the Soviet Union and Russia’s attempts to reclaim its former empire. For him and the citizens of countries on NATO’s eastern flank, security is not an abstraction. It is a lived memory.
From there, we turn to the present.
What is the state of the war in Ukraine? How should we understand Russia’s military posture and Europe’s response? Rather than treating Moscow’s behavior as erratic or irrational, Rolandas situates it in a longer historical arc. Russian statecraft, he argues, follows patterns that are legible if you take history seriously. We discuss the idea of Russia’s “endgame,” whether territorial, political, or civilizational.
We also examine why Eastern Europe sees NATO as a necessary counterweight to Russia. For states like Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland, alliance commitments are existential. The Baltic view of security differs sharply from debates in Washington or Western Europe. That divergence helps explain tensions within the alliance, as well as its resilience.
The conversation then widens to U.S.–Russia relations. What does Moscow ultimately seek from Washington? Is confrontation structural, or contingent? How does American policy look from Eastern Europe? We explore the strategic logic on both sides and what it suggests about escalation, deterrence, and long-term competition.
In the final third of the episode, we step back to the broader question of world order. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently described the current moment at Davos as a “rupture” of the post–Cold War system. Is that accurate? Are we witnessing the consolidation of a multipolar world, or simply a more contested version of U.S. primacy? We discuss what this shift means for Europe, Canada, and middle powers that depend on stable rules and predictable alignments.
We also detour briefly to East Asia. Rolandas has studied Japan extensively, and we examine rising tensions between China and Japan. How do maritime disputes and security anxieties in the Pacific echo patterns we see in Eastern Europe? Where do the parallels break down? And what does this tell us about the broader structure of the international system?
Throughout the discussion, one theme recurs: geography and history matter. States carry memory. Alliances reflect fear as much as ideology. And periods of apparent stability often conceal deeper structural stress.
What You’ll Take Away
By the end of the episode, you’ll come away with a clearer understanding of:
How Eastern Europe interprets Russian behavior
What Russia may ultimately be trying to achieve
Why NATO remains central to security on its eastern flank
How U.S.–Russia tensions fit into a wider global realignment
What emerging debates about multipolarity mean in practice
If you follow global affairs, European security, or the long-term trajectory of the post–Cold War system, this conversation will sharpen your perspective.
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